May 19, 2006
By James D. Besser

Israeli prime minister not expected to press Bush for West Bank withdrawal funds yet. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, due in Washington next week for his inaugural visit as Israel's premier, will focus on building broad support for his controversial plans to withdraw from much of the West Bank, not on winning U.S. aid, which many analysts say is a critical element in the proposal.

Reports in the Israeli press this week suggested Olmert was warned by top American Jewish leaders not to press for funding at a time when the U.S. budget is in shambles. Several sources say Israeli leaders had already decided to focus the visit more on broad issues, not money.

A request for U.S. economic assistance to help with the budget-busting costs of the plan to remove tens of thousands of Jews from West Bank communities is likely, said Israel Policy Forum President Seymour Reich, who recently returned from a round of meetings in Jerusalem with top Israeli officials.

"Without outside help, this would be very difficult on the Israeli economy," he said, adding that he does not expect an Israeli request until more details of the plan have been worked out.

Israeli officials are acutely aware of the snowballing budget crisis in Washington, "They are very cognizant of the fact that they didn't get a dime to help with the Gaza pullout, despite very friendly talks with the Bush administration," said Lewis Roth, assistant executive director of Americans for Peace Now. "And they know budget constraints in Washington will make a new, bigger request even harder."

Still, American Jewish groups opposed to the planned withdrawal described as "convergence" by Israeli officials who note that it would keep military positions in place are marshaling their forces for an assault on what they consider the plan's most vulnerable point.

"I am preparing a letter to every member of Congress saying that I'm a great supporter of Israel, but it's nuts for our tax dollars to be spent for the purpose of throwing Jews out of their homes," said Brooklyn Assemblyman Dov Hikind. He said he is assembling a coalition of Jewish and Christian groups to oppose the withdrawal and U.S. financial help for it.

"The fact is, this is a reward for terrorism and for Hamas," said Hikind, who expects his message to resonate on Capitol Hill.

A vocal Christian opponent of last year's Gaza withdrawal, Rev. Jim Vineyard, an Oklahoma minister who protested that policy when former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon visited Bush at his Texas ranch, has picked up the cause. Last week he wrote to members of his state's congressional delegation, saying that "as a nation, we cannot be complicit in further withdrawals of Hebrews from land given to them by the Almighty please, please, please use your influence to see that our President does not give Prime Minister Olmert any kind of promise for further funding."

Yossi Ben-Aharon, a former Israeli diplomat and an official in the government of former Prime Minster Yitzhak Shamir, this week urged Rev. Vineyard to organize an anti-convergence effort among Evangelical pastors and send letters "to all members of both houses of the U.S. Congress, as well as to the main figures in the Bush Administration.

"This campaign should be given as much publicity as possible, depending, of course, on financial resources available," Ben-Aharon said. U.S. and Israeli sources say the need for Washington's financial help may come up at next week's summit, but that it will be discussed only in the broadest terms.

President Bush is not expected to press Olmert for details of the convergence plan, and the Israeli leader is not expected to offer many. "This visit is all about cosmetics Ñ which at this point are more important than substance," said Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League. "Substance can be dealt with behind the scenes. This is a traditional first visit of a prime minister after getting elected; everybody wants it to go well, so everybody is working to lower expectations."

Other Jewish leaders say that while building a warm relationship is important, pressing issues will demand immediate attention, including changing policies toward the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.

The administration wants Olmert's endorsement of "greater flexibility in dealing with the Palestinian issues," said Martin Raffel, assistant director of the Jewish Council for Public Affairs (JCPA). "They would like this visit to get across the idea that flexibility in dealing with the Palestinians is supported in Jerusalem."

U.S. officials, under pressure from partners in the Mideast "Quartet," will press Olmert to maintain contact with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, said Shlomo Aronson, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

The new Israeli government sees Abbas as powerless and contacts with him a waste of valuable time. This week Abbas called for resumed negotiations instead of unilateral Israeli actions in the West Bank. Olmert and Bush "will have to agree on how to behave" toward the Palestinian leader, Aronson said. While establishing a warm personal relationship will be a priority for Olmert when he meets top administration officials next week, Aronson said that a growing sense of urgency in Jerusalem demands at least some talk about details.

"Olmert knows very well that he presides over a very fragile coalition," he said. "He has in common with [Labor leader and Defense Minister Amir] Peretz only one major issue: the withdrawal. Therefore, they have to use the time in which they have a common denominator É to do as much as possible."

In addition, Israeli officials are well aware that President Bush, seen as a strong ally, will be in office for less than two years, and that the next American leader may not be as sympathetic to Jerusalem.

Bush and Olmert will also begin a dialogue about how the two allies can deal with a nuclear Iran as more and more analysts concede the effort to thwart Teheran's nuclear ambitions may be lost.

The two leaders will discuss "countermeasures of a strategic nature by the United States, in cooperation with other countries in other words, deterrence and containment," Aronson predicted.

That means developing strategies to prevent other nations in the region from following Iran's nuclear example, and providing U.S. defense guarantees for an Israel that will be the nation most threatened by a nuclear Iran.

The timing of Olmert's visit was a blessing for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the pro-Israel lobby group which has been pushing hard for House passage of a measure cutting off direct aid to the Palestinian Authority and strictly limiting even humanitarian assistance.

That measure was expected to pass the House by a wide margin despite mounting opposition by the Bush administration, but it was delayed on a parliamentary technicality. It is now expected to come to the House floor when Olmert, who will address a joint meeting of Congress, is in town.

"Who will vote against a bill supported by the pro-Israel lobby when the Prime Minister is in town?" asked one pro-Israel lobbyist. "The timing is very good for getting this done quickly now."

In another coincidence of good timing, AIPAC's board will be in town early next week and will lobby for the measure, with Olmert's visit as a backdrop.

Olmert, who will meet with Jewish leaders on Monday night in Washington, will also be presented with a letter organized by Brit Tzedek v'Shalom, the Jewish Alliance for Justice and Peace, expressing support for the West Bank pullout but arguing that "negotiations should occur before even provisional borders can be set. Unilateral initiatives that lessen or preclude the possibility of a viable Palestinian state alongside Israel will not lead to the end of the conflict and will be detrimental to both Israelis and Palestinians."

In a letter signed by figures such as actor Theodore Bikel, former White House chief of staff Abner Mikva and Jewish renewal leader Rabbi Arthur Waskow, the group argued that "the United States should do everything possible to strengthen the standing of President Abbas and Palestinian moderates internationally and with the Palestinian people." That includes both "public diplomacy and back-channel discussions," the group said.